Hour-By-Hour Guide To 2010 Election Returns Part 5 – 10:00 EDT Closings

by Allan Rivlin Sheri Rivlin Julia Kurnik on November 1, 2010

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All times are Eastern Daylight Savings Time (EDT.)

Part 1: Introduction and 6:00 EDT Poll Closings is here.

Part 2: 7:00 and 7:30 EDT Poll Closings is here.

Part 3: 8:00 EDT Poll Closings is here.

Part 4: 9:00 EDT Poll Closings is here.

10:00 PM: Statewide polls close in Arizona, Iowa, Nevada, and Utah.  The majority of polls close in Idaho at this point and networks may feel safe to call the state, but a portion of Idaho is on Pacific Time and so those polls will not close until 11 PM.  Polls also begin to close in North Dakota, but time zones and poll closing times vary, with the rest of polls not closing until 11:00 PM EDT.  If the race is looking safe, though, networks may call North Dakota before 11:00 eastern.

Senate: There is really the only state to watch at this hour, Nevada.  Incumbents John McCain (R-AZ), Chuck Grassley (R-IA), and Mike Crapo (R-ID) should all win easily.  With the retirement of longtime Senator Byron Dorgan (D), it looks like John Hoeven (R) will turn North Dakota red.  Incumbent Bob Bennett (R-UT) was ousted by primary voters, but his seat should be very safe in this Republican state, sending former Alito Clerk Mike Lee (R) to Washington, D.C.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) is in a neck-and-neck battle with the far-right, Tea Party backed,  Sharron Angle (R) who defeated several establishment candidates for the Republican nomination.  Reid is deeply unpopular in his home state, but Angle is extremely gaffe-prone and has faced intense scrutiny on several issues such as the repeal of Social Security.  This one will be decided by get out the vote efforts in this strong union state, and how large the Hispanic vote is and how it breaks.  Pollster rating – Lean Rep.

House: Seven of CenteredPolitics’ Top-70 races close at this hour, but Arizona is really the state to watch, with four Democrats looking to defend their seats.

D   —   R

__  __ IA-3/Lean Dem: Congressman Leonard Boswell (D) seeking an eighth term is defending his votes for TARP, the Recovery Act and healthcare reform while challenger Brad Zaun (R) trumpets smaller government.

__   __ ND-1/Lean Rep: Longtime incumbent Earl Pomeroy (D) is hoping he can keep his seat against Rick Berg (R) in this difficult election and despite Senator Dorgan’s retirement.

__   __ NV-3/Lean Rep: Freshman Dina Titus (D) hopes to continue to represent this district just south of Las Vegas.  She is challenged by Joe Heck (R) in a close race that may go the same way as the Senate race.

__   __   AZ-1/Lean Rep: Congresswoman Ann Kirkpatrick (D), a freshman, has been defending her votes on healthcare reform and the Recovery Act.  Dentist Paul Gosar (R) hopes that the current anti-establishment climate and Kirkpatrick’s opposition to Arizona’s immigration law is enough to defeat her.

__   __   AZ-5/Toss Up: Harry Mitchell (D) was elected in 2006 in this Republican leaning district.  He defeated David Schweikert (R) in 2008, but is now in a closer race in this year’s rematch.

__   __   AZ-7: In the southwest corner bordering Mexico, incumbent Raul Grijalva (D) is defending his seat of eight years against Ruth McClung (R).  Grijalva lost support when he called for a boycott of his own state after Arizona’s tough new immigration law passed. Handicappers Charlie Cook and Larry Sabato have changed their rankings to reflect a tightening race. [Update: Cook rates this race a Toss Up]

__   __   AZ-8/Toss Up: Incumbent Gabrielle Giffords (D) has raised a lot of money to keep her seat after 4 years in office.  Challenger Jesse Kelly (R) is pointing to Giffords’ voting record on cap and trade, healthcare reform, and the Recovery Act to argue that she is out of touch with her conservative district.

Governor: All 5 gubernatorial races shutting down at 10 PM should go to the Republicans.  Four of these seats are currently held by the Republican Party, with only Iowa switching sides here.

In Iowa, incumbent Chet Culver (D) has had a rough first term and former Governor Terry Branstad (R) seems likely to take back the Mansion.  In Arizona, Governor Jan Brewer (R), infamous yet popular in-state for her anti-immigration law, should easily win over Attorney General Terry Goddard (D).  Utah incumbent Gary Herbert (R) should also keep his seat against Peter Corroon (D) in a special election.  In Idaho, yet another incumbent, CL Otter (R) seem on track to defend against former Harvard professor Keith Allred.  And finally, in Nevada, Rory Reid (D), son of Harry Reid, looks to be in trouble against Judge Brian Sandoval (R).


Part 1: Intro and 6:00 EDT poll closings is here.

Part 2: 7:00 and 7:30 EDT poll closings is here.

Part 3: 8:00 EDT poll closings is here.

Part 4: 9:00 EDT poll closings is here.

Part 6: 11:00 EDT poll closings is here.


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