June Weekly Ratings of 5 Election Scenarios

by Sheri Rivlin and Allan Rivlin on June 7, 2012

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6/28 Supreme Court ObamaCare decision was a huge victory for the Court’s independence, Democratic policy progress, and Republican outrage, but may have little impact on 2012 election unless Republicans get stuck in fight mode over ObamaCare ruling while Democrats pivot to focus on jobs and economy.  If this happens as Republicans are threatening, it could dramatically reduce Republican 2012 chances, but this would be reflected in future weeks’ ratings. Romney’s continued inability to solve his immigration problem, stuck on the wrong side of the fence for swing state Latino voters, has more immediate influence on this weeks ratings. Ratings for the week: 1. Republican wave 26% 2. Democratic Wave 23% 3. Anti-incumbent wave 25% 4. No wave 23% 5. Pro-incumbent wave 3%.  

6/21 If Romney had an economic plan, Latino voters would care more about that, unless Obama had an economic plan.  But Romney doesn’t and Obama doesn’t, so the Dream administrative order and Romney’s fumbled response are the big news story of the week. Add 4 points to the Democratic scenario 2. Greek elections made no news but Europe and China and the Middle East remain wobbly.  Scores for the week:  1. Republican Wave 26% 2. Democratic Wave 21% 3. Anti-incumbent wave 28% 4. No wave 23%.  5. Pro-incumbent wave 2%.

6/15 Obama gave a speech that nailed Romney’s lack of a political philosophy different from George W. Bush. So two points off of scenario one, Republican wave; but Obama didn’t lay out his own economic philosophy, so one point off scenario two, Democratic wave. Mr. Axelrod, a list is not an economic philosophy. Ratings for the week:   1. Republican Wave 28% 2. Democratic Wave 17% 3. Anti-incumbent wave 30% 4. No wave 25%

6/7 Bad news for unions and Dems from WI recall and other ballot initiatives, add to R wave (scenario 1) and subtract from anti-incumbent wave (scenario 3) while number of WI ticket splitters adds to no-wave (scenario 4). 1. Republican Wave 30%, 2 Democratic Wave 18%, 3. Anti-incumbent Wave 29%, 4 No Wave 23%

6/1 Bad job numbers add to the likelihood of 1. Republican wave or 3. anti-incumbent wave (Rs lose House)  Republican wave – 28%,  Democratic wave – 20%, Anti-incumbent wave – 31%,  No wave 21%

Scenario 1)    A Republican wave sweeping out Democrats because President Barack Obama and the Democrats were elected in 2008 to fix the economy and the economy is likely to still stink four full years later on Election Day 2012.

Scenario 2)    A Democratic wave sweeping out Republicans who find themselves too closely associated with the wealthiest “1%” and large corporations and on the wrong side of a class war in an election year.

Scenario 3)     An anti-incumbent, or more precisely anti-politician, wave sweeping out office holders of both parties in favor of new faces in an effort to fix the broken political system in Washington.

Scenario 4)     The waves cancel each other out.  Different cross pressures in different regions leave voters without a clear voice and leave the nation without any new direction.

See  Even With Tied Polls Now, A Wave Election Is Likely and Could We See An Historic Triple Flip In 2012?  


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