July Weekly Ratings Of Five Election Scenarios

by Sheri Rivlin and Allan Rivlin on July 6, 2012

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7/28 Usually the Olympics puts the election on hiatus with a slight advantage to the incumbent due to nationalism and his ability to congratulate the winners.  As a former Olympic official, Romney had the opportunity to neutralize this advantage, but an unstatesmanlike comment instead compounded the deficit.  Rothenberg and others, assuming no wave, tell us the House is unlikely to flip.  For these reasons we are decreasing the anti-incumbent wave scenario 3 and increasing the pro-incumbent wave scenario 5 by a couple of points each.  (In that most incumbents win most elections, readers should note that the pro-incumbent wave scenario 5 implies a greater than expected number of incumbent victories.  The normal number of incumbent victories would be the no-wave scenario 4.)  Ratings for the week: Scenario 1: Republican wave 21%.  Scenario 2: Democratic wave 25%.  Scenario 3: Anti-incumbent wave 22%. Scenario 4: No wave 25%. Scenario 5: Pro-incumbent wave 7%.

7/13 The Dog Days have arrived early.  Congress got some actual work done last week so Republicans could turn to a silly ObamaCare repeal vote that we see as a strategic loser.  The presidential campaign has taken a turn for the worse with both sides calling the other side liars.  The only scenario to advance this week is anti-incumbent.  CenteredPolitics.com will take Huckabee and the odds in the VeepStakes.  Ratings for the week: Scenario 1: Republican wave 22%.  Scenario 2: Democratic wave 24%.  Scenario 3: Anti-incumbent wave 25%. Scenario 4: No wave 25%. Scenario 5: Pro-incumbent wave 4%.

7/5 Another bad week for vacationing Romney. After fumbling immigration last month, the Romney campaign fumbles the Obamacare “tax” — raising real questions of party leadership. With mixed economic data, this would be a good week for Dems, except the campaign $$$ picture brought into focus tremendous Republican down ballot advantages, increasing the “no wave” scenario. “No wave” does not mean a close race. Obama could win with 300 electoral votes, but if the GOP holds the House and picks up a half dozen state legislative chambers, it could still be “no wave.” Ratings for the week: Scenario 1. Republican wave 24%.  Scenario 2: Democratic wave 24%.  Scenario 3. Anti-incumbent wave 23%.  Scenario 4: No wave 25%.  Scenario 5. Pro-incumbent wave 4%.


See June ratings

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