8/22 Ryan’s selection and Akin comments continue to make this election about something, but Medicare cuts and abortion without exceptions may not be what Republicans want this election to be about. So the no wave scenario is receding as Republican wave advances but Democratic wave advances more heading into the Republican convention. Current Rating: Scenario 1: Republican wave 26%. Scenario 2: Democratic wave 34%. Scenario 3: Anti-incumbent wave 16%. Scenario 4: No wave 13%. Scenario 5: Pro-incumbent wave 11%.
8/11 The choice of Ryan for Veep alters the race substantially. It means we will have to have a clear debate about the budget, taxes and plans for Medicare and Social Security – so this may no longer be “an election about nothing.” This increases the chances for a Republican wave by three points and the Democratic wave by 6 points. House Democrats would like to have a big national debate on the Ryan budget to improve their chances of winning the chamber. Romney got a crowd to boo Obama’s cuts to Medicare – does he not know Ryan’s cuts are deeper? Ratings for the week: Scenario 1: Republican wave 24%. Scenario 2: Democratic wave 31%. Scenario 3: Anti-incumbent wave 20%. Scenario 4: No wave 16%. Scenario 5: Pro-incumbent wave 9%.