September Ratings Of Five Election Scenarios

by Sheri Rivlin and Allan Rivlin on September 8, 2012

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(Scenario 1) Republican wave (Scenario 2) Democratic wave  (Scenario 3) anti-incumbent wave (Scenario 4) no wave.  5) pro-incumbent wave

9/30 Little movement in Presidential race pre-debates but Senate races starting to fall in line for the Democrats. Will movement in the House races show up next? Ratings for the week: Scenario 1: Republican wave 14%. Scenario 2: Democratic wave 53%. Scenario 3: Anti-incumbent wave 12%. Scenario 4: No wave 9%. Scenario 5: Pro-incumbent wave 12%.

9/21 Dramatic changes  this week as the chance of 2012 being a Democratic wave election rises to 47 percent and a Republican wave scenario drops to 15 percent.  A wave election would mean tight races are likely to turn blue and even safe incumbents would fall.  This is far more than a prediction of an Obama victory, as 2012 seems to be shaping up as a class war with Republicans on the short side.  The Senate is likely to stay in Democratic hands and control of the House is very much in doubt.  Ratings: Scenario 1: Republican wave 15%.  Scenario 2: Democratic wave 47%.  Scenario 3: Anti-incumbent wave 15%. Scenario 4: No wave 10%. Scenario 5: Pro-incumbent wave 13%.   

9/14 Turmoil in the Middle East puts greater doubt into these ratings, but Romney misstatements on Embassy message and muddling his plans for health care reform reform continue to send up red flags even from conservative commentators. Obama faces real challenges on foreign policy but being President is always a much harder job than running for President.  The conversation is shifting away from the economy as Fed QE3 lifts markets.  It may be perhaps too early but Centered Politics is starting to see a Democratic wave scenario taking hold. Ratings for the week :   Scenario 1: Republican wave 20%.  Scenario 2: Democratic wave 39%.  Scenario 3: Anti-incumbent wave 11%. Scenario 4: No wave 16%. Scenario 5: Pro-incumbent wave 14%.   

9/8 Empty Republican Convention loaded up little ammunition for the fall campaign.  Democrats made errors and missed opportunities, but had substance and star-power to win all three nights, and Bill reminds us Medicaid is a middle-class issue.  Current Rating: Scenario 1: Republican wave 22%.  Scenario 2: Democratic wave 36%.  Scenario 3: Anti-incumbent wave 13%. Scenario 4: No wave 16%. Scenario 5: Pro-incumbent wave 13%.   

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